I ran an experiment last year. I made 500 calls from my personal mobile and 500 calls from our sales dialler. Same prospects, same time of day, same script.
Personal mobile: 11% connect rate. Sales dialler: 3% connect rate.
The dialler number had been used for thousands of outbound calls. Carriers had flagged it. My personal number was clean.
The Numbers Are Brutal
Research from Hiya shows that spam calls peaked at nearly 46 billion in the US in 2020. Carriers responded by building aggressive filtering. The problem is that legitimate sales calls get caught in the same net.
The result: connect rates that would have been embarrassing a decade ago are now considered normal.
Research from Cognism shows average connect rates now hover around 4-5%, with significant variation by industry and approach.
When I started in sales in 2012, we complained if connect rates dropped below double digits. Now teams celebrate when they hit 6%.
What Actually Happened
Three things changed simultaneously:
Spam filtering got aggressive
Carriers now use AI to identify potential spam based on call patterns. High volume outbound from a single number? Flagged. Lots of short calls (people hanging up quickly)? Flagged. Calls to numbers that never answer from your number? Flagged.
Once you're flagged, your calls either go straight to voicemail or display "Spam Likely" on the recipient's screen. Good luck getting someone to answer that.
Remote work killed direct lines
In 2019, you could call an office, navigate the phone tree, and reach your prospect's desk phone. That desk phone sat three feet from them all day.
Now? That desk phone rings in an empty office while your prospect works from their kitchen. The office number forwards to a mobile they don't answer because they don't recognise it.
Everyone screens everything
Caller ID used to be a feature. Now it's the default. Nobody answers unknown numbers. Why would they? It's either spam, a robocall, or someone trying to sell them something.
What Actually Works Now
Clean your numbers
Register your outbound numbers with the major carriers' whitelisting services. The Free Caller Registry is a starting point. It won't guarantee delivery, but it reduces the chance of being flagged.
Rotate numbers before they get burned. If you're making hundreds of calls from one number daily, it will get flagged. Use multiple numbers and spread the volume.
Time your calls strategically
Spam calls peak between 10am and 2pm. Calling outside these windows means you're not competing with the bulk of the spam.
I've had the best luck calling between 7:30-8:30am and 4:30-5:30pm. Decision-makers are often at their desks, the spam volume is lower, and they're more likely to be between meetings.
Use multiple channels
The reps who still hit connect rate targets don't rely on cold calls alone. They layer:
- LinkedIn connection request
- Email mentioning they'll call
- Call (with voicemail if no answer)
- Follow-up email referencing the voicemail
By the time the phone rings, the prospect has seen their name twice. That familiarity increases answer rates.
Structuring your outreach across multiple channels, with each touchpoint reinforcing the others, is what separates effective prospecting from spam.
Accept the new math
If connect rates are 5% instead of 15%, you need 3x more dials to get the same number of conversations. That's the reality. Adjust your activity targets accordingly.
Or get better at making those conversations count. Every connection is more valuable now because it's harder to get. Don't waste it with a weak opener. Make those first 30 seconds count by being relevant, specific, and respectful of their time.
The Uncomfortable Truth
Cold calling isn't dead, but it's harder than it's ever been. The reps who succeed now are the ones who:
- Protect their phone numbers like assets
- Use multiple channels in coordinated sequences
- Accept lower connect rates and adjust volume accordingly
- Make every conversation count because they're rare
The days of dialling 50 numbers and connecting with 8 people are over. That's not coming back. Adapt or struggle.